How to Understand Advanced Football Stats

Sports fans are likely to have heard about advanced football stats, but they may not understand just how they are used and what they refer to. The concept of collecting and analysing large amounts of performance information has become a growing trend in the world of professional sports over the last two decades. But football has been something of a latecomer to the party, as initially it only focused on goals. Because of the relatively low numbers of goals scored in an average football game, it made it difficult to derive meaningful insights from the data, until advanced football stats came in. 

What are Advanced Football Stats?

Advanced football stats refer to the knowledge and insight gained about a player or a team’s performance, based on a variety of data such as game data and individual player performance. Sports analytics and advanced stats can be thought of as a way of using past performances to determine future decisions, whether it’s by coaches developing strategies or fans looking to place bets. Collecting this football data is quickly becoming a big business, with companies dedicated to looking at statistics to unearth trends and patterns which can be leveraged for future choices. Traditional football metrics such as goals, goals saved and shots on target are great for looking at what happened, but advanced stats make for a more reliable way of understanding what will happen in the future. 

What are Expected Goals?

Expected goals (xG) is the favoured metric for predicting future performances and it’s a complex concept, but the main focus is that the probability of a shot resulting in a goal is calculated based on where and how the player took the shot. A straight-on shot, for example, that was taken inside the six-yard box is more likely to score a goal than an angled header. The contact method, position of the ball, distance from the goal and several other factors are taken into account – if these factors result in a goal 90% of the time, it’s worth 0.90 xG, while a more outlandish shot might net once every 70 times so it will have a 0.014Xg. 

Non-shot xG works to provide information on possessions that don’t result in a shot, identifying sides that have xG stats which are inconsistent with other supporting factors. The volumes and types of passes that sides take when attacking are used to predict how often passes should, in theory, lead to shots compared to how often they actually result in shots. These insights are all used to help teams develop offensive strategies that will maximise their scoring potential, for a more in depth xG guide, check out infogol. 

Why are Advanced Stats Important?

Advanced stats aren’t just important to players and coaches, they’re also valuable to fans. They provide an enhanced fan experience and can be used to great effect when betting or when developing fantasy football teams. Football match odds and predictions are derived from sophisticated data analysis so understanding how these odds are used and how a side is likely to perform against their opponent is important when placing bets that are more likely to be successful.